Aug 18, 2007: Worldwide Panic

Across the globe, all of the indexes have fallen over the past 30 days, demonstrating once again that global diversification does not protect against short-term market declines. European markets were heavily impacted, with many indexes posting price drops of 10% or more. The US fared well by comparison, with just a 6.3% decline.

Despite the recent correction, emerging markets still have large gains as compared to prices a year ago. Valuations are less favorable, with investors now accustomed to paying a premium for the expected high growth of these investments. However, the top two entries on our list, S. Korea and Taiwan, defy this trend by having both high recent returns and very low valuations.

Some speculate that the low valuations in Europe are due to strong currencies and/or low growth expectations. Whatever the cause, the PE ratio of the UK index has now fallen to 12.5, 17% lower than that of the US, and 33% lower than China’s average PE. Belgium’s PE ratio is even lower and France’s only slightly higher.

High earnings growth in both developed countries and emerging markets has helped push global equity prices much higher in the past year. During that period, earnings in emerging markets have increased almost 18%, as compared to 11% for developed countries. However, in recent weeks, the global equity correction has pushed valuations lower, and PE ratios are now only 13 to 15 on average.

In some markets, it can be argued that prices have moved far ahead of earnings and valuations have risen too quickly. China is a well-known example, but Mexico, Singapore, and Malaysia also have yearly returns in the 30% to 50% range, while earnings growth has been much more modest, at only 13% to 17%. PEG ratios for all of these indexes would be 2 or 3, while for many other countries, the ratio would be one or less.

Taiwan and S. Africa stand out as potential values. Earnings growth in both countries has been extremely high, but prices have not risen fast, resulting in very reasonable valuations. In Europe, Spain and Italy would also meet the same criteria. For the largest developed economies, the UK has about the same level of earnings growth as the USA, but has the significant pricing advantage of a 20% lower valuation

PlanetQuant is a professional collaboration between a financial writer and researcher, a Silicon Valley computer scientist, and an award-wining multimedia developer. Every two weeks, these three combine their talents to provide an update on the world's market indexes and always welcome any feedback and discussion. You may read their more detailed bios via the links above.

ETF prices are compiled daily from Yahoo Finance/Morningstar data. Monthly valuation ratios from IndexUniverse are used and then adjusted based on daily price changes. Correlations are based upon one year, and volatility is based upon twenty-two market days.

The scores from 0 to 4 represent the average of the three normalized variables for a category. For example, a valuation score of 3 for a country indicates that, on average, the three valuation variables (p/e, p/b, and p/cf) are one standard deviation lower than the averages for the group.