Across the globe, all of the indexes have
fallen over the past 30 days, demonstrating once again that global
diversification does not protect against short-term market declines.
European markets were heavily impacted, with many indexes posting
price drops of 10% or more.
The US fared well by comparison, with just a 6.3% decline.
Despite the recent correction, emerging markets still have large
gains as compared to prices a year ago. Valuations are less favorable,
with investors now accustomed to paying a premium for the expected
high growth of these investments. However, the top two entries on
our list, S. Korea and Taiwan, defy this trend by having both high
recent returns and very low valuations.
Some speculate that the low valuations in Europe
are due to strong currencies and/or low growth expectations. Whatever
the cause, the PE ratio of the UK index has now fallen to 12.5,
17% lower than that of the US, and 33% lower than China’s
average PE. Belgium’s PE ratio is even lower and France’s
only slightly higher.
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High earnings growth in both developed countries and emerging markets
has helped push global equity prices much higher in the past year.
During that period, earnings in emerging markets have increased almost
18%, as compared to 11% for developed countries. However, in recent
weeks, the global equity correction has pushed valuations lower, and
PE ratios are now only 13 to 15 on average.
In some markets, it can be argued that prices have moved far ahead
of earnings and valuations have risen too quickly. China is a well-known
example, but Mexico, Singapore, and Malaysia also have yearly returns
in the 30% to 50% range, while earnings growth has been much more
modest, at only 13% to 17%. PEG ratios for all of these indexes
would be 2 or 3, while for many other countries, the ratio would
be one or less.
Taiwan and S. Africa stand out as potential values. Earnings growth
in both countries has been extremely high, but prices have not
risen fast, resulting in very reasonable valuations. In Europe,
Spain and Italy would also meet the same criteria. For the largest
developed economies, the UK has about the same level of earnings
growth as the USA, but has the significant pricing advantage of
a 20% lower valuation
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PlanetQuant is a professional collaboration between a
financial writer
and researcher, a Silicon Valley
computer scientist,
and an award-wining
multimedia developer.
Every two weeks, these three combine their talents to provide
an update on the world's market indexes and always welcome any
feedback and discussion. You may read their more detailed bios
via the links above.
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ETF prices are compiled daily from Yahoo
Finance/Morningstar data. Monthly valuation ratios from
IndexUniverse are used and then adjusted based on daily price
changes. Correlations are based upon one year,
and volatility is based upon twenty-two market days.
The scores from 0 to 4 represent the average
of the three normalized variables for a category. For example,
a valuation score of 3 for a country indicates that, on average,
the three valuation variables (p/e, p/b, and p/cf) are one standard
deviation lower than the averages for the group.
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